November 21, 2014 at 2:53 pm
This week on Off the Charts, we focused on the federal budget and taxes, the safety net, health care, and state budgets and taxes.
- On the federal budget and taxes, Chuck Marr listed four reasons why the House approach to “tax extenders” is flawed. Paul Van de Water explained why policymakers shouldn’t adopt “dynamic scoring” for tax and spending legislation. We rounded up several new pieces on congressional negotiations over funding levels for this fiscal year. And Arloc Sherman warned of the impact if Congress shortchanges Census funding.
- On the safety net, Ife Floyd mapped state TANF (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families) programs around the country, which have weakened significantly over time.
- On health care, January Angeles explained why enrollees in the federal marketplace should revisit it during open enrollment to ensure that they get the proper amount of help buying health coverage.
- On state budgets and taxes, Michael Leachman highlighted Kansas’ latest projections, which bring more bad news for those who hoped the state’s tax cuts would generate an economic surge.
This week, we released papers on why Congress should finish 2015 appropriations before adjourning, why the Senate approach to 2015 appropriations better protects domestic priorities, the large cuts in non-defense discretionary spending since 2011, why the President’s requested funding to respond to the Ebola outbreak is an appropriate use of emergency funding, and why consumers should return to the federal health marketplace to renew coverage rather than auto-renewing for 2015. We also updated our reports on why budget and tax plans should not rely on dynamic scoring and why the House efforts to make tax extenders permanent are ill-advised.
CBPP’s Chart of the Week – A New Visual of State TANF Programs:
A variety of news outlets featured CBPP’s work and experts recently. Here are some highlights:
The University of California just jacked up its tuition. Why your state could be next.
November 21, 2014
Veterans in subsidized housing: one in two is elderly, one in five younger with disabilities
November 18, 2014
Report: Millions hurt if family tax breaks expire
November 12, 2014
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November 21, 2014 at 2:08 pm
People who bought private health insurance last year through the federally run marketplace could pay more than they should next year unless they return to the marketplace to renew coverage, our new paper explains.
That’s because they will be automatically re-enrolled in the same plan in 2015, with the same subsidies to help pay for coverage, unless they choose a plan through the marketplace during the open enrollment season, which began November 15.
The federal marketplace, which operates in the 34 states that don’t have a state-based marketplace (see map), provides auto-renewal as a backstop to ensure that people who don’t return to the marketplace don’t lose coverage. … Read more
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November 21, 2014 at 10:42 am
The latest projections from Kansas’ nonpartisan Legislative Research Department bring more bad news for those who hoped Kansas’ massive tax cuts would generate an economic surge.
The department predicts that personal incomes will grow more slowly in Kansas than in the nation as a whole this year and will continue to lag behind the national rate in 2015, 2016, and 2017, by wide margins (see graph).
This isn’t what tax cut proponents predicted. Governor Sam Brownback said they would be “a shot of adrenaline into the heart of the Kansas economy.” The Heritage Foundation’s Stephen Moore, who helped design them, said the economic benefits would be “near immediate and permanent.”
Faced with the state’s unimpressive economic performance since the tax cuts took effect, proponents now claim they just need a little more time to work. … Read more
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November 20, 2014 at 4:09 pm
Congress is expected during the lame-duck session to address “tax extenders,” a set of tax provisions (mostly for corporations) that policymakers routinely extend for a year or two at a time. While the Senate has pursued temporary extensions, the House has taken a far different approach that’s flawed on both policy and priorities grounds, as our updated paper explains.
The House has: made a number of extenders permanent; permanently expanded one of the biggest extenders, the research and experimentation credit; and permanently extended some temporary tax breaks that aren’t extenders — such as “bonus depreciation,” which lets businesses take larger upfront tax deductions for purchases like machinery. … Read more
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November 19, 2014 at 4:23 pm
This interactive map provides a wealth of information on state Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) programs, which — as CBPP analyses have documented — have weakened significantly as a safety net since TANF’s creation in the 1996 welfare law.
Not only does TANF reach many fewer needy families than it used to, but TANF benefits have lost a fifth of their value since 1996 in most states and leave families far below the poverty line, making it extremely difficult for them to meet basic needs.… Read more
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November 18, 2014 at 3:06 pm
A key question as Congress finalizes funding for this fiscal year is whether it will give the Census Bureau what it needs to prepare for the next census in 2020. A House-passed funding bill from June fell far short, as we explained then. In its final spending measure, Congress should acknowledge that the Census Bureau — as it has in past decades — must prepare early to get the nation’s head-count right.
As seven former Census Bureau directors from both Democratic and Republican administrations recently wrote Congress:
While the 2020 Census might seem far off .
… Read more
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November 18, 2014 at 2:20 pm
We just issued several short pieces on congressional negotiations over funding levels for this fiscal year. They explain:
- Why Congress shouldn’t pass another stopgap funding bill but instead agree on funding levels for the rest of the fiscal year.
- Why 2015 will almost inevitably be another year of shrinking real (inflation-adjusted) resources for non-defense discretionary programs, which include everything from law enforcement and homeland security to veterans’ medical care, scientific and medical research, public health, education, and environmental protection.
- Why the Senate approach to 2015 funding for non-defense discretionary programs better protects domestic priorities than the House approach.
… Read more
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November 17, 2014 at 5:10 pm
An American Action Forum event today to promote “dynamic scoring” for tax and spending legislation unintentionally illustrates what Chye-Ching Huang and I explain in a newly updated paper: estimates of the macroeconomic effects of policy changes — which is what dynamic scoring would include — are highly uncertain and subject to manipulation, so they shouldn’t be part of official cost estimates.
In reasonably balanced remarks, Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) said that “we should not expect dynamic scoring to produce outsized miracles from either the supply side or the demand side.”
But Tax Foundation President Scott Hodge, in giving his organization’s estimates of the effects of several tax proposals, promised just such miracles. … Read more
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November 14, 2014 at 3:55 pm
This week on Off the Charts, we focused on health care, housing, the federal budget and taxes, and the safety net.
- On health care, Edwin Park rebutted an attack on health reform’s “risk corridor” program. Matt Broaddus pointed to a new survey showing that low-income adults favor expanding Medicaid. Jesse Cross-Call described how states can help veterans by expanding Medicaid and explained that Congress can sustain gains in children’s health coverage by renewing the Children’s Health Insurance Program.
- On housing, Will Fischer pointed out that rental assistance helps over 340,000 veterans afford housing and has contributed to recent progress in reducing homelessness among veterans.
… Read more
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November 14, 2014 at 3:11 pm
The share of children without health insurance remained at a historic low of 7.1 percent in 2013, Georgetown University Center for Children and Families’ annual report on children’s health coverage finds (see graph). That’s down considerably from the 9.3-percent rate for 2008, the earliest year for which we have comparable data. (The small change from 2012’s 7.2-percent rate wasn’t statistically significant.)
Along with Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) has been a major factor in reducing the ranks of uninsured children since its enactment in 1997. … Read more
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November 13, 2014 at 4:06 pm
Four-fifths of low-income adults surveyed in three southern states favor health reform’s Medicaid expansion, a new Harvard School of Public Health study finds. The first quantitative analysis of potential enrollees’ views on Medicaid, the survey included residents of Kentucky (which has adopted the expansion), Texas (which hasn’t), and Arkansas (which has expanded under a waiver that allows it to enroll the expansion population in private marketplace coverage).
The survey was conducted in December 2013, during health reform’s first open enrollment period (and before implementation of the Medicaid expansion), to maximize the likelihood that respondents were familiar with the concepts in the survey.… Read more
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November 13, 2014 at 1:52 pm
As policymakers mull corporate tax reform, it’s important to distinguish between two proposals that are often confused: a repatriation tax holiday and funding infrastructure through broader corporate tax reform, such as through a transition tax on offshore profits.
A repatriation tax holiday encourages U.S. multinationals to return overseas profits to the United States by offering them a temporary, much lower U.S. tax rate on those profits. It’s voluntary, saves money for companies, and increases deficits.
Lawmakers tried this in 2004 and it was a complete policy failure: contrary to their promises, companies generally didn’t use the repatriated funds for more U.S.… Read more
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