In Case You Missed It…

September 16, 2011 at 3:44 pm

This week on Off the Charts, we talked about the new Census Bureau data on poverty, incomes and health coverage in 2010; the economy; the federal deficit; state taxes; and public housing.

  • On the Census Bureau data, we released a set of charts presenting the data in historical context.  Robert Greenstein explained that federal programs kept millions of Americans out of poverty in 2010.  Erica Williams examined state-level poverty trends over the past decade.  Hannah Shaw highlighted some particularly troubling findings from the Census report.  And Indivar Dutta-Gupta showed that families living in poverty are the most likely to experience hardship.
  • On the economy, Chad Stone testified before Congress, outlining prescriptions to increase overall demand and jump-start the economy.
  • On the federal deficit, we reposted our chart detailing the main factors driving today’s large deficits.
  • On state taxes, Phil Oliff reported on the Missouri Senate’s vote to preserve a property tax credit that helps thousands of elderly and low-income residents.
  • On public housing, Will Fischer detailed the harmful impact of a House subcommittee bill that would cut public housing funding.

In other news, Robert Greenstein released a statement on the 2010 Census data and we issued a detailed analysis of the data.  Chad Stone testified before Congress on policy prescriptions for the economy.  We updated our backgrounder on unemployment insurance and our chart book on the Great Recession.  We held briefings on raising the Medicare eligibility age and the 2010 Census data.  We also analyzed House legislation to cut funding for public housing.

Proposed Cuts to Public Housing Would Prove Harmful and Costly

September 16, 2011 at 3:36 pm

The federal government has a long history of underfunding public housing, and the $1.4 billion funding cut that a House Appropriations subcommittee approved last week would make a bad situation worse, exposing families to deteriorating living conditions, greater risk of safety hazards, and possible displacement from their homes, as our new report explains.

Proposed Cut to Public Housing Capital Funding Follows Decade of Decline

The 1.1 million households in public housing consist mostly of elderly individuals, people with disabilities, and working poor families.  The proposed cut runs counter to the principle, laid out by the Bowles-Simpson fiscal commission, that Congress shouldn’t place the burden of deficit reduction on vulnerable low-income people.  Worse, it places a disproportionate burden on low-income people by cutting public housing funding by 20 percent, about four times as much as the cut that this year’s Budget Control Act requires in overall non-security discretionary funding for 2012.

Public housing capital funding, which covers major repairs and renovations, has seriously eroded over the past decade (see graph); under the subcommittee bill, it would fall to just 40 percent of its 2001 level, adjusted for inflation.  This amount would cover less than half of the repair and renovation needs estimated to accumulate in public housing each year, and would fail completely to address the estimated $26 billion backlog of unmet needs.

In addition, the cuts in the bill would likely raise future costs to federal and local governments by delaying repairs that would prevent more costly damage down the road (such as fixing a leaking roof), deferring energy efficiency improvements, and making it more costly for local housing agencies to issue bonds or take out loans to finance public housing renovation.

Congress should restore capital funding to last year’s level and ease the bill’s other cuts in public housing.  Also, to help address the backlog of repair and renovation needs, Congress should enact HUD’s proposed Rental Assistance Demonstration (RAD).  As our report on the proposal (then called Transforming Rental Assistance) explains, RAD would give housing agencies more adequate and reliable funding and make it easier for them to obtain private investment to support renovation projects.

The Case for Fiscal Stimulus

September 15, 2011 at 3:03 pm

Testifying before the Senate Budget Committee today on policy prescriptions for the economy, Center Chief Economist Chad Stone outlined the importance of increasing overall demand:

Economy Operating Well Below Full CapacityA host of developments precipitated by the bursting of the housing bubble threw the U.S. economy into a deep hole in 2008 and the first half of 2009, with the output of goods and services (actual GDP) falling well below what the economy was capable of supplying with high employment, normal labor force participation, and full utilization of existing capacity (potential GDP).  Extraordinary monetary and fiscal policy measures undertaken by the Federal Reserve, Congress and two administrations arrested the fall and kept the hole from getting deeper, but we are still trying to dig out of that hole and we’ve had limited success so far (see graph).

There is tremendous economic waste and human hardship in an economy that is operating well below full capacity.  The goods and services that are not produced, the wages and business income that is not earned, and the revenues not received are lost forever.  Potential GDP is effectively a ceiling on sustainable production, so periods of severe economic slack such as we are currently experiencing are not offset in the future by periods when actual GDP exceeds potential by a comparable amount.

CBO estimates that the recession and subsequent economic slump have already cost the economy $2½ trillion in lost output (the cumulative gap between actual and potential GDP since late 2007) and that without a pickup in the expected pace of recovery, we will lose another $2½ trillion before getting back to full employment.  Moreover, as CBO notes, “Not only are the costs associated with the output gap immense, but they are also borne unevenly, falling disproportionately on people who lose their jobs, who are displaced from their homes, or who own businesses that fail.”

Policies that reduce the size of the output gap along the way to restoring full employment reduce the economic costs and human hardship of an economic slump.  Long-term unemployment is at unprecedented levels, and as Tuesday’s grim report from the Census Bureau on income, poverty, and health insurance in 2010 shows, the recovery is proceeding too slowly to reduce that hardship substantially anytime soon.

A large output gap stems mainly from inadequate aggregate demand for goods and services, and policies that increase aggregate demand are likely to be more successful at closing the output gap than policies that give businesses tax incentives to expand production.  The problem for most businesses in an economic slump is not that they don’t have enough capacity to meet existing demand but that they don’t have enough demand to fully utilize their existing capacity.  Thus policies that put more customers in the stores with more money to spend are likely to be more successful at closing the output gap and creating jobs than giving businesses tax breaks.  Policies that focus on raising the purchasing power of unemployed workers and middle- and low-income households are likely to be more successful per dollar of budget costs at increasing spending and creating jobs than policies cutting tax rates for high income taxpayers who are likely to save a significant portion of any tax cut they receive.

Click here for the full testimony.  Click here for more charts on the impact of the recession.

Robin Hood in Reverse…Reversed

September 15, 2011 at 10:52 am

The Missouri Senate took a big step Tuesday toward protecting the well-being of over 100,000 low income elderly and disabled residents by voting to preserve an important property tax credit.

As I explained last week, a proposal before the Senate would have eliminated renters’ eligibility for the state’s property tax “circuitbreaker” credit and used the savings to help finance new tax credits for businesses.

Like most of the states with circuitbreaker credits, Missouri makes the credit available to low-income elderly and disabled renters (as well as to homeowners), in order to help offset the property taxes that landlords pass along in the form of higher rent.  Eliminating renters’ eligibility for the credit would make it more difficult for some of the state’s most vulnerable residents to make ends meet.  It would also damage the Missouri economy, because low-income people are among those most likely to spend every dollar they have.

Whether the cut to the circuitbreaker credit stays off the table is now up to the Missouri House.  It should go along with the Senate and keep the circuitbreaker, and the crucial assistance it provides, alive for Missouri’s renters.

A Close Look at the New Census Numbers

September 14, 2011 at 5:16 pm

We’ve just issued our detailed analysis of the 2010 data on poverty, incomes, and health coverage.  It begins:

Driven by the persistent weakness in the economy, the poverty rate in 2010 reached its second-highest point since 1965, median income declined, and the number and percentage of Americans without health insurance stood at record highs, the Census Bureau said yesterday.  The share of Americans in “deep poverty” — with incomes below half of the poverty line — also hit the highest level on record, with data going back to 1975.

Contributing to the high percentage of Americans who have no health insurance was the decline in the percentage of Americans with employer-provided health coverage.  The new data also highlight the importance of implementing health care reform, slated to take full effect in 2014.

The new Census figures also show that millions more Americans would have fallen into poverty or become uninsured if not for programs like unemployment insurance, food stamps, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), and Medicaid, which face major decisions by federal and state policymakers — and could face substantial cuts.

The 2010 figures were the worst in many years, if not decades, by several measures, as the table shows.

Click here for the full report.