Despite what you may have heard, the share of enrollees in the new insurance marketplaces who are young isn’t the most critical factor in determining whether the marketplaces’ risk pool will be well balanced and whether their premiums may have to increase next year. Instead, the health status of enrollees is far more important. That’s the conclusion of a recent Commonwealth Fund-organized gathering of insurers, actuaries, researchers, and federal officials.
The misplaced idea that success hinges on whether enough young people sign up — since young people are generally healthier and thus less costly to cover — has gained undeserved traction in recent months. And the release of the latest federal data on marketplace enrollment, including a breakdown by age, will likely bring renewed attention to the number of young enrollees. But, as a Commonwealth report summarizing the meeting concludes, “there is no single right percentage for young adult participation.”
We made the same point a few weeks ago, explaining that the health status of enrollees at all ages is far more important in producing a balanced risk pool and ensuring that the marketplaces will have stable and affordable premiums over time. Also important is how well each insurer predicted who would sign up for coverage this year. If an insurer’s enrollees cost far more than it anticipated in setting its 2014 premiums, it might raise premiums in 2015 to better reflect its expected costs.
The Commonwealth Fund report also highlights some factors that could limit any losses that insurers may experience this year, which in turn could tamp down any 2015 premium increases.
For example, health reform’s risk corridors (along with its other risk-mitigation programs) limit insurers’ potential losses as the law’s major reforms take effect in the individual market and the new marketplaces become fully established. And two health reform requirements — that insurers justify premium increases of 10 percent or more and spend a set percentage of their premiums on medical care rather than administration and profits — are expected to help hold down any rate increases in 2015.